Fourth Erfurt Transatlantic Dialogue investigates the world’s response to rising U.S.-China tensions

Economic dependencies between the EU, U.S., and China

The discussion’s moderator, Madeline Bohm, Academic Coordinator of the doctoral program on De-Globalization at the Brandt School, began by asking to what extent China, the U.S. and the EU are economically reliant on one another and how these economic ties affect political interests. Michael Laha, Senior Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, noted China’s leadership in digitalization and digital technologies and Europe’s dependency on Chinese raw materials. In this light, he explained the EU’s "De-risking" strategy: an approach aimed at minimizing vulnerabilities without completely severing economic ties.

Thomas Yoshimura, Policy Advisor China at Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, highlighted that U.S. allies like South Korea and Japan remain economically dependent on China. He emphasized that how these nations manage this dependency will be crucial in determining the future of their domestic economies.

Communist ideology and the Taiwan issue

The experts agreed that ideological motivations, not economic ones, drive China’s desire for "reunification" with democratic Taiwan. George Yin, Senior Fellow at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, said that Taiwan is not economically vital for China, since Chinese products are already globally competitive. Instead, he argued that the Taiwan issue is driven by the Communist Party’s ideological interests.

Yin explained that China increasingly seeks to reshape the international order to benefit the ideology of the Communist Party. He noted that Beijing’s leadership is not always consistent; for instance, while China indirectly supports Iran, it simultaneously positions itself as a mediator between conflicting parties.

Rising U.S-China tensions and effects in the Indo-Pacific

Yoshimura noted that Chinese propaganda spreads a narrative that the West, particularly the U.S., is politically weak and untrustworthy. China uses this distrust to present itself as a reliable, rising global power. Consequently, the U.S. views China as its primary competitor, in Asia and beyond. Laha added that a growing "Cold War mentality" is palpable, leading Japan to reinterpret its traditional pacifism to include the self-defense of its allies, a move that has triggered new tensions with China.

Yoshimura observed that China attempts to establish competing international systems like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS formats. Unlike Russia, China does not seek chaos but rather the deliberate reinterpretation of existing rules (e.g., within the UN) to align international norms with views of the Communist Party. Yin pointed to regional power plays, such as territorial claims in the South China Sea backed by military installations, which provoked border conflicts. Given this, Yoshimura emphasized the necessity of the U.S. presence in the Indo-Pacific to signal that aggressive expansion will not be tolerated.

Laha highlighted the role of "swing states" like Vietnam, which uses Chinese technology for internal security while relying on the U.S. for external security, an example of the strategic balancing act countries in the region are forced to employ.

Iran, rivalry, and knowledge deficits

When an audience member asked about the war in Iran and its implications for U.S.-Chinese relation, Yin described the war as an indirect conflict between the U.S. and China. As Laha explained, Iran is heavily dependent on China, particularly for oil exports, while China exports goods to Iran used by the Iranian military and civilians. Yoshimura cited how an American strike destroyed Iranian air defense systems that were made in China, and some U.S. commentators pointed to this attack as proof of the U.S.’s technological superiority. 

Besides political and economic challenges, an audience member pointed out a significant knowledge deficit in Germany. While China employs over 200 experts to analyze Germany, the number of China experts close to the German government is very small. Yin confirmed that China meticulously monitors how foreign media reports on the country.

Demographics and security

Finally, the discussion turned to how China's aging society might affect its military readiness. Yoshimura suggested the Communist Party might lose domestic support if families are forced to send their children to war over Taiwan, especially as memories of the Chinese Civil War persist. However, Yin warned that the military balance is shifting in China’s favor. Should a "window of opportunity" arise, the Chinese leadership might consider an attack to achieve its ideological goal of "reunification."

Strategic tasks for the West

The dialogue underscored that the relationship with China is a complex web of economic dependency, geopolitical rivalry, and ideological opposition. Democratic nations, particularly the U.S. and the EU, must develop joint strategies to meet these challenges, recognizing that China remains a central global actor.