Senior Eurasia Group analyst comes back to Brandt School for Top Risks 2026

On January 12, Henning Gloystein made it back to Brandt School to share his take on political risks in 2026. According to their analysis, “US political revolution” is the top risk this year, implying declining US democratic legitimacy is undermining global stability. A key driver here is the “The Donroe Doctrine”, a modern remake of the Monroe Doctrine: expanding US control in Latin America, Venezuela, Canada, Greenland with serious implications for NATO cohesion and Arctic security. Additional risks lie in “state capitalism with American characteristics“, with crony capitalism in the world's largest economy being expanded and entrenched. With leading AI companies adopting business models in 2026 that threaten social and political stability, accompanied with population growth and rapid urbanization, demand pressures for water will intensify and become a loaded weapon. That said, red herrings include unlikely fully segmented “three bloc world” (US/Russia/China spheres), Donald Trump's trade war, and deglobalization. 

Top Risks is an annual flagship report of the Eurasia Group, a leading global risk consultancy. The event, moderated by current Brandt School student Christian Castro, turned into a lively discussion between the Eurasia expert and the students on what will lie ahead on world politics.