| Staatswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Forschung

New Publication: The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations

Behavioral economics and inflation expectations are the subject of a new book by Tobias F. Rötheli, Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Erfurt, now published by Cambridge University Press.

As one of the first texts to take a behavioral approach to macroeconomic expectations, this book introduces a new way of doing business. Tobias Rötheli uses cognitive psychology in a bottom-up approach to modeling macroeconomic expectations. His research is based on laboratory experiments and historical data, which he extends to real-world situations. He shows that pattern extrapolations are the key to understanding inflation and income expectations. The quantitative model of expectations is used to analyze the course of inflation and nominal interest rates in a number of countries and historical periods. The expected income model is used in the analysis of economic phenomena such as the Great Recession in the United States. The book also provides data and tables for the author's own calculation of macroeconomic expectations. It provides students and researchers with a quantitative model to analyze inflation, interest rates, and business cycle phenomena for each country or historical period. At the same time, Tobias Rötheli offers completely new perspectives in many areas of macroeconomics and finance.


Tobias F. Rötheli
The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations: Macroeconomics Meets Psychology
Cambridge University Press, 2020
ISBN: 9781108447065
243 pages / 34,96 EUR