New study in Nature Reviews Clean Technology assesses geopolitical scenarios for a hydrogen-based industrial production

The use of renewable hydrogen to decarbonize energy-intensive industries could fundamentally reshape global production locations and trade flows. This is the conclusion of a new study published in the journal Nature Reviews Clean Technology.

The study starts off from a geographical mismatch of industrial clusters often located in regions different from those with the greatest potential for producing green hydrogen. This imbalance, the article argues, could have far-reaching consequences for existing value chains.

Three possible development pathways are discussed: a fuel-switch scenario, in which hydrogen replaces fossil fuels without fundamentally altering industrial value chains; an industrial relocation scenario, in which energy-intensive industries move to regions with high hydrogen production potential; and a hybrid scenario, in which hydrogen production and the manufacturing of intermediate goods take place at the same location, while final production remains in existing industrial centers.

The researchers emphasize that each scenario comes with different geopolitical, environmental, and social impacts. Hydrogen strategies must therefore be coordinated with industrial, trade, and social policies in order to manage transitions, support workers and regions, and promote more resilient green value chains.